NEW DELHI: For all the differences in treatment of Pakistan and India that
US President George W Bush made apparent during his recent visit, there was
one similarity --- the commitment of Washington to buttress alternate
sources of energy for both the countries in order to reduce the pressure on
fossil fuels. Indeed, in this Washington is driven as much by its own
selfish interests, given the domestic distress due to spiraling price of
crude oil.

Given Pakistan's dubious nuclear proliferation record, Bush could not have
signed a deal similar to India, but he did take the next best option --- he
made it apparent that Washington would not oppose Pakistan's attempts to
procure gas from Iran. This is being seen as a significant change in
American thinking as Washington has been opposing the 1,700-mile
Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline till now.

Indeed, while being cold on all other issues, Washington should have warmed
hearts in Islamabad due to gas. Perhaps, feeling slighted by the nuclear
deal in India, Musharraf and his team has not noticed the major concession.
New Delhi can only be happy at the development as this could translate into
a double bonanza of alternate fuels in the form of gas and nuclear energy,
provided of course Pakistan continues its commitment of extending the
pipeline to India.

In the new paradigm of Indo-US synergies and a definite de-hyphenation of
the relationship, there is a possibility that Islamabad may try and snub New
Delhi and insist upon an Iran-Pakistan pipeline not extending up to India.
Tehran could play ball given New Delhi's siding with western powers at the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to refer Iran to the UN for
sanctions due to an independent nuclear programe.

But, Pakistan will also stand to lose over $ 700 million in annual transit
fees, while Tehran will have to do without substantial revenues. It remains
to be seen how the interests of business will be balanced against
geo-strategic power maneuvers, which will become apparent when the IPI
working group meets next week.

Having slighted Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf on Kashmir, the nuclear
deal with India and lectured him on the virtues of democracy, perhaps it was
incumbent on Bush to show some flexibility on other matters. ``Buddy''
Musharraf remains an important cog in US's ``war on terror.''

At the joint news conference with Musharraf, Bush made it apparent that a
nuclear deal with Pakistan was never on. Bush said: `I explained that
Pakistan and India are different countries with different needs and
different histories and these differences would be taken into account as the
strategy moved forward.'' However, Bush acknowledged Pakistan's growing
energy needs and made it clear that the United States would not oppose a
natural gas pipeline to Iran. ``Our beef with Iran is not the pipeline. Our
beef with Iran is the fact that they want to develop a nuclear weapon,''
Bush said.
``He (Musharraf) explained to me the natural gas situation here in the
country. We understand you need to get natural gas in the region, and that's
fine,'' Bush said.

It may be recalled that recently India decided to join the US-backed
Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (TAP) pipeline especially due to the
geo-political wrangles involving the $ 7 billion IPI. Following the recent
decision by the Myanmar government to supply gas to China, India is also
making swift maneuvers to ensure the $ 1 billion Myanmar-Bangladesh-India
(MBI) gas pipeline.  Paradoxically, singed by Myanmar, Bangladesh and China
over energy resources, New Delhi did find an uncommon ally in Islamabad that
pushed (at least till the nuclear deal happened) for India's involvement in
TAP as well as the IPI.

Indeed, Bush did elucidate the thinking in Washington about the importance
of ramping up alternate sources of energy for petrol guzzling nations such
as India. The Indo-US civil nuclear cooperation treaty is expected to impact
the global fossil fuel (coal/oil/gas) market. India along with China and the
US is among the world's fastest-growing oil markets. In an interview to The
Times of India Bush said: ``it's in our country's interest, by the way, to
encourage India -- and aid India in its development of a civilian nuclear
power program. The American people are beginning to see high prices of
energy, but so are the Indian people. And the reason why is, is that there's
growing economies -- ours, India's, China's -- which is adding to global
demand for energy. And demand is outstripping supply, and then what happens,
you see price. And one way to help deal with price here at home and/or with
India is to develop alternative ways to power homes and businesses, as well
as automobiles.''

Bush knows what he is talking about. Despite the opposition by nuclear hawks
within Congress, there is support for the nuclear deal within business
houses in USA. According to reports, the US business community sees $100
billion worth of new opportunities in India's energy sector alone. American
companies have mounted a multimillion-dollar campaign to sell the nuclear
deal to the US Congress that has to finally ratify the agreement. It is
being emphasized that the deal promises a ``bounty of opportunity.''  The
lobbying drive is the most expensive ever mounted by business, Ron Somers,
president of the US-India Business Council of the US Chamber of Commerce,
has said.

There is support from other nations as well. Russia sees India as a major
market and has been keen on expanding nuclear links with India. France,
Britain and Canada have supported the deal. However, India will have to
contend with considerable resistance from China, which has criticized the
nuclear deal.

It is estimated that by 2025, today's global demand for 84 million barrels
of oil per day will have grown to 121 million to 130 million barrels a day.
The United States is the world's largest energy consumer. US demand for oil
is about 21 million barrels per day, compared with 7.4 million barrels per
day projected this year for China, according to the US Energy Department.
India's oil consumption was 2.2 million barrels per day in 2003 and is
projected to grow to 2.8 million by 2010, according to the department. No
amount of digging domestic resources in Alaska will yield the US
requirements. China and India too will have to import considerable
quantities of crude oil to make-up for gasoline guzzling automobiles. India
imports 70 % of its crude.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has been pushing for nuclear power despite
domestic political pressure and dissonant voices from the scientific
community. The arguments in favor of nuclear energy are sustainability in
the face of depletion of fossil fuel as well as lower pollution.

The thinking in the establishment is that while there are enough domestic
resources to make India's nuclear weapons programme completely
self-sufficient, imports of fuel, technology and reactors could help
accelerate India's civilian nuclear programme. The department of atomic
energy (DAE), controlled by the federal government, has soaked millions of
dollars to deliver an abysmal 2.5 % of India's electricity-needs with a host
of safety problems.  Currently, 16 % of world's electricity is nuclear power
with most increase coming due to better performance of existing units.

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Siddharth Srivastava is a New Delhi-based journalist